Machine learning and automatic ARIMA/Prophet models-based forecasting of COVID-19: methodology, evaluation, and case study in SAARC countries.

Machine learning (ML) has proved to be a prominent study field while solving complex real-world problems. The whole globe has suffered and continues suffering from Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and its projections need to be forecasted. In this article, we propose and derive an autoregressive modeling framework based on ML and statistical methods to predict confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. Automatic forecasting models based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Prophet time series structures, as well as extreme gradient boosting, generalized linear model elastic net (GLMNet), and random forest ML techniques, are introduced and applied to COVID-19 data from the SAARC countries. Different forecasting models are compared by means of selection criteria. By using evaluation metrics, the best and suitable models are selected. Results prove that the ARIMA model is found to be suitable and ideal for forecasting confirmed infected cases of COVID-19 in these countries. For the confirmed cases in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, the ARIMA model is superior to the other models. In Bhutan, the Prophet time series model is appropriate for predicting such cases. The GLMNet model is more accurate than other time-series models for Nepal and Pakistan. The random forest model is excluded from forecasting because of its poor fit.

The Not-So-Silent Rise of Nationalism: A COVID-19 Result

Since the discovery and surge of the COVID-19 virus in the early days of 2020, we saw the creepy crawl of accusations and counteraccusations, the divisions between the scientific communities, the lack of exemplary conduct by the political elites, the lack of transparency in the reporting of death statistics, and the increasing lack of confidence and support for people. Amidst all this was a burgeoning of defensive and, on many occasions, offensive nationalism. A stage that mirrored resounding the amended final command from the 1924 George Orwell's Animal farms, wherein the Pigs, the more intelligent of the manor farm animals, proclaim that some animals are more equal than others. © 2022 Pulla. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Design of a Joint Microservices-based Smart Epidemic Prevention Platform

Currently, as COVID-19 spreads around the world, epidemic prevention departments from different provinces and regions often need to carry out cross-regional cooperation. In the paper, some new office platforms based on some office needs of the joint prevention and control work are tried to build. In the paper, the platforms built is capable of visualizing the risk map of regional risks, covering a multi-segment integrated joint prevention and control collaborative business platform system of the CDC, customs, relevant medical institutions and health tracking management departments. For the staff in each business link, they can access the data of cases, close contacts and key health tracking objects through the platform. Based on the work, it's necessary to print relevant certificates online, and at the same time, they also supplement the business data of the link to the data chain, providing better information services for improving the efficiency of joint prevention and control. In the process of making an analysis of the business needs, it is found that when building the platform, it will face problems such as many functional modules, variable demand, and too large amount of concurrency at a certain time. In the paper, the implemented architecture techniques would be explained, the details of the key technology implementation adopted by micro-services in realizing the platform would be clarified, and the significance of the platform to the epidemic prevention work would be finally discussed. © 2021 IEEE.

Implementation Perspectives for the European Green Deal in Central and Eastern Europe

The present paper aims to identify the main factors that influence the capacity building for the Green Deal’s implementation in Member States from the central EU (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania) and the improvements that can be made in this regard. The research is empirical and explanatory, using qualitative strategy and the following methods: observation, a case study and a comparative method, for a period of ten years (2011–2020). The main findings of the research indicate four distinct categories of factors that could predict the capacity building for the Green Deal’s implementation: cultural, political, economic and social;as well as a differentiation of the Green Deal’s implementation in different stages at the EU level: industrialized Member States from the west and north, Member States from the south and north (Baltic states), and Member States from the central and south-east. The elaboration of national and regional plans for implementation and regional cooperation will provide suitable solutions, supported by the recovery and resilience funds. The research reveals that the prognosis for the Green Deal’s implementation in all of the investigated Member States is negative. The limitation of the research consists in its explanatory nature, which inhibits the ability to make definite conclusions.

Action for Action: Mad COVID-19, Falling Markets and Rising Volatility of SAARC Region

The Southern Region has reported a large number of contagious pandemic outbreaks. These epidemics brought threats to human health and resulted in serious economic losses. The COVID-19 is a global virus and has weakened the global financial markets with significant effect on stock returns and market volatilities. The study obtained a dataset about the financial market structure of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Countries. The purpose of the study is to determine the effect of 2019-nCov on stock market performance of SAARC member states. The study considered indexes of the National Stock Exchanges of each country and applied an event study approach for estimating the impact of Mad COVID-19 on the stock returns and market volatilities with an event window of 25 days of severe pandemic hits. The CAR approach proved the declining effect of Mad COVID-19 on the stock returns of SAARC countries. Asymmetric GJR-GARCH Model estimated the changeable volatility and proved the increase in volatility with COVID-19 as a negative shock. SAARC Region significantly reacts to Mad COVID-19 with falling markets and rising volatility.

ASEAN-REPUBLIC OF KOREA DIGITAL PARTNERSHIP:THE IMPERATIVES OF TRANS-REGIONAL COOPERATION IN CONTROLLING COVID-19

As the raging COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread and bring the world to its knees, governments around the world are still struggling to find effective solutions to prevent the further spread of the disease and its tremendous impact on human life. However, the Republic of South Korea (ROK) has successfully responded to this problem with its advanced technology. Conversely, ASEAN countries are still grappling to manage enormous COVID-19 impacts due to the lack of equal technological access. Hence, this study was aimed at exploring and outlining the possible adoptions of ASEAN-Korea Digital Partnership in addressing contemporary and post COVID-19 challenges. As an effort to meet the purpose of this study, the pragmatism of a qualitative methodology was deemed suitable to assess and compare the current conditions and challenges faced by ASEAN and the ROK. After being amalgamated in extensive and strategic relations for more than 30 years, ASEAN and ROK have accomplished outstanding achievements and a blossoming joint development, specifically in technological cooperation. Thus, the ASEAN-Korea Digital Partnership is more than feasible in its goal of supporting the technological advancements of ASEAN and open an ideal market for the ROK's technological production. Considering the economic, technological, and political challenges and incompatibilities, it can be reasonably assumed that the possible digital partnerships are 5G interconnectivity, surveillance system, e-commerce, and cybersecurity cooperation. It is hoped that the present study can serve as a new alternative perspective for a post COVID-19 ASEAN-Korea Digital Partnership trans-regional cooperation.

The Middle East and COVID-19: time for collective action.

Revised: Nov 6 2021The shortfalls of multilateral and regional organizations in respect of handling the COVID-19 pandemic have been well rehearsed by scholars and policy makers in multiple publications and statements. While the World Health Organization (WHO) and its regional offices have coordinated global responses, regional organizations, like the European Union, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or African Union, have played complementary roles. However, the response of different regions has varied, revealing multiple deficits in the structures of regional governance. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is a region affected by chronic ongoing conflicts and serious inequalities in health and welfare provision, reflected in the absence of concerted responses to the pandemic. Its young population has meant lower comparative mortality rates, but the socio-economic spill-over effects are grave in terms of interrupted education, high unemployment, particularly in respect to vulnerable communities like refugees and migrant workers. With the current situation remaining critical, this paper reviews the impact of COVID-19 on MENA and considers the variable performance of states and institutions to the pandemic, highlighting the shortfalls, but also opportunities for collective action. Drawing on data from the WHO, United Nations (UN), regional organizations, media and secondary sources, it first discusses the wider global-regional context; second, reviews the actions of regional bodies, like the League of Arab States, Gulf Cooperation Council and the cross-regional Organization of Islamic Cooperation; and third, looks at some country-specific situations where both evidence of good practice and the absence of appropriate regional level provision have exposed deep regional divides. It concludes with a call for more collaboration between states and international organizations: better regional coordination is urgently needed to supplement existing multilateral efforts. A collective local response to the COVID-19 pandemic could help transcend regional divides and spur much-needed security cooperation in other areas.

COVID-19 and ASEAN responses: Comparative policy analysis.

Scholars and policy-makers agree that cross-border and multi-sector cooperation are essential components of coordinated efforts to contain the spread of COVID-19 infections. This paper examines the responses of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nation) member countries to the COVID-19 pandemic, including the limits of regional cooperation. ASEAN has pre-existing cooperative frameworks in place, including regional health security measures, which, at least theoretically, could assist the region's efforts to formulate cooperative responses to containing a global pandemic. With its overarching "One Vision, One Identity, One Community", ASEAN cooperation has extended to include region-wide disaster responses, framed as "One Asean, One Response". Using content analysis, this paper examines media statements and policies from ASEAN member states and the ASEAN Secretariat to assess the collective response to COVID-19 during the period from January to August 2020. By identifying gaps and opportunities in government responses to COVID-19 as the virus spread throughout Southeast Asia, this paper provides new insights as well as recommendations for the future.